As all poker fans know by now, the final table of the 2008 WSOP Main Event is going to be played in less than two weeks.
Harrah's radical decision to move it
to November has been assaulted by many, praised by a few and viewed with
a mixture of confusion and curiosity by the rest.
But, no
matter. The day dawns, and it's time for me to think out loud about the
psychological factors introduced by the four-month hiatus.
What
follows are my speculations. I don't know any of the folks who've made
the final table, and have no special insight into how each will handle
the situation. But there are reasons for suspecting
marked cards that this temporal
lacuna will benefit some more than others.
Recovery from Fatigue
It took seven days and nearly 66 hours of play to get down to the final table. The break gives everyone the chance to recover.
Breather helps the geezer.
Those who benefit the most will be those who were the most tired - most likely Dennis Phillips, 'cause geezers get tired faster than 20-somethings (trust me on this one).
What
would have been a disadvantage has been removed. Phillips also gets a
boost because he's older, more mature and, as he's put it, "I'm just
having a blast." And, of course, he will be sitting behind a freakin'
mountain of chips.
Gratification, Now or Later
Some
react badly to being forced to wait for anticipated goodies - an effect
that has been softened somewhat by everyone receiving ninth-place money
(a shade over $900k) immediately after the final table participants
were decided this summer.
Delaying the distribution of the
remaining pool may impact some negatively and others not so much. Those
who start to twitch when they have to sit at a dinner table waiting for
everyone to be served may not have liked the time gap.
Those with
a Zen-like calm about things will not be bothered. Keep in mind that
whoever gets knocked out first will add exactly zero to his bankroll -
and who wants to come back after four months, play one hand and get
nothing but a bunch of handshakes and a TV moment?
Just contemplating this is depressing. The big stacks should be primed to take advantage.
Sharpening Your Game
I'm
assuming all final-table participants took the time to analyze the play
of their opponents, tease out patterns and tendencies they hadn't
picked up on before and, importantly, worked on finding new ways to mix up their own games to neutralize such efforts on the part of their opponents.
Demidov: He's a certified beast.
Several of the finalists have played in other tournaments, gaining experience and honing their skills.
If anyone got an edge on the field here, it was Ivan Demidov. Demidov has been busy, most recently in the WSOP Europe Main Event where, amazingly, he finished third.
This accomplishment certainly cements his reputation; the final table in London was heavy with talent, including Daniel Negreanu, Scott Fischman and John Juanda (who won). The "book" has Demidov as the one to beat.
"Absence makes the heart grow fonder" or "Out of sight, out of mind"?
These
two clichés are among my favorites as each seems so real when uttered,
yet they are mutually contradictory. Which one will we see here? Will
our nine survivors care as much about the
infrared contactlenses final table as they would have
without the delay?
You may think this sounds silly. How could they not? Nine million coconuts is a serious payday.
However,
the latter cliché actually has the data behind it. As the weeks and
months have dragged on, they all have lived their lives, bought clothes
and cars, traveled, played in other venues, gone out to dinner, formed
and reformed relationships
The significance of the final table
may have psychologically diminished. For some, it may begin to look less
special, more like a date marked on the calendar. Will they be able to
"crank it back up?"
Advantage goes to Chino when it comes to WSOP final-table experience.
Probably,
but some will get sharper, others not. If there's an advantage here I
suspect it goes to the young and hungry, with Chino Rheem looking good
here with two WSOP final tables to his credit.
Momentum
In
virtually any game, stopping play is unhelpful when things are going
your way and a blessed relief if you're getting thumped. Those on a roll
tend to be alert, focused and show little fatigue, while their
opponents are down, distracted and exhausted.
This is why coaches call time-outs, and one reason why the second half of a game is often different from the first.
But
momentum in poker is a different kind of beast. Because the luck factor
is so large, momentum fluctuates more and for different reasons.
Cards are mere slips of plastic and paint. They don't "know" that they gave the same player three huge flops in a row.
The
impact of momentum here, as opposed to a game like football, is largely
mental, and it can shift without anyone doing anything. In football
someone has to
do something (interception, great run-back); in poker all it takes is the random turn of a card.
While
all the players know, consciously, that each hand is independent of
every other hand, the player who got hit in the head with the deck
during the playdown to the final table isn't going to like this break.
But his chip stack is sooo low ...
The
one who was mucking hand after hand and hanging on for dear life is
breathing a sigh of relief - even though both know their feelings are
based on a statistical illusion.
The lull will smooth out the momentum factor, which will benefit players who'd been card-dead. I'd give Kelly Kim an edge here, but his chip stack is sooo low ...
Prognostication?
I
could find a reason for picking any of the nine (well, if Kim takes it
down, color me surprised). But, to tell the truth, the one who wins will
be the one who gets lucky.
I know, I know; I'm not supposed to
say that. But history is on my side. Rerun the tapes of Varkonyi,
Moneymaker, Gold and Yang. What do you see?
Final Analysis
I think that a break was a good idea. But four months? Sheesh, the Super Bowl
does fine with an extra week.
